We have a lamplight problem. The only drugs in our pipelines, certainly by the time they hit phase II, are those with a positive NPV. At many companies now, ‘forecasts’ that don’t exceed $2bn will see a molecule eliminated from a portfolio review. Given the 5 to 10 years from that forecast to it being proven unreliable in real practice, we need to realise that the pile of molecules we discarded may well contain more gems than the ones we kept.