Performance of Atrial Fibrillation Burden Trends for Stroke Risk Stratification | Circulation: Arrhythmia and Electrophysiology
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an increased risk of stroke, yet the limitations of conventional monitoring have restricted our understanding of AF burden risk thresholds. Predictive algorithms incorporating continuous AF burden measures may be useful for predicting stroke. This study evaluated the performance of temporal AF burden trends as predictors of stroke from a large cohort with insertable cardiac monitors. METHODS: Using deidentified data from Optum Clinformatics Data Mart (2007–2019) linked with the Medtronic CareLink insertable cardiac monitor database, we identified patients with an insertable cardiac monitor for AF management (n=1197), suspected AF (n=1611), and cryptogenic stroke (n=2205). Daily AF burden was transformed into simple moving averages, and temporal AF burden trends were defined as the comparison of unique simple moving average pairs. Classification trees were used to predict ischemic stroke, and AF burden significance was quantified u