Increased e-cigarette use prevalence is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among US adults – Harm Reduction Journal
Background If US adults who smoke cigarettes are switching to e-cigarettes, the effect may be observable at the population level: smoking prevalence should decline as e-cigarette prevalence increases, especially in sub-populations with highest e-cigarette use. This study aimed to assess such effects in recent nationally-representative data. Methods We updated a prior analysis with the latest available National Health Interview Survey data through 2022. Data were cross-sectional estimates of the yearly prevalence of smoking and e-cigarette use, respectively, among US adults and among specific age, race/ethnicity, and sex subpopulations. Non-linear models were fitted to observed smoking prevalence in the pre-e-cigarette era, with a range of ‘cut-off’ years explored (i.e., between when e-cigarettes were first introduced to when they became widely available). These trends were projected forward to predict what smoking prevalence would have been if pre-e-cigarette era trends had continued u
