Estimated Future Mortality from Pathogens of Epidemic and Pandemic Potential
Epidemics and pandemics pose a sporadic and sometimes severe threat to human health. How should policymakers prioritize preventing and preparing for such events, relative to other needs? Our simulations suggest that an event having the mortality level of COVID-19 should not be considered a “once in a century” risk, but rather occurring with an annual probability of 2-3 percent (that is, a one in 33-50-year event).